Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7342117279debd86f80856e63a7539528689c6db31794ec58a19ec56b781228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 2,268$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 60c | 1,403$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.23 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 875.21$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 38c | 795.3$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 615.23$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.49 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 610.53$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.23 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 499.48$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 497$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 429.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 368.15$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 366.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…1fdebacked Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 331.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 72c | 253.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 239$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 238$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 207$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 202.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 23c | 182.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 173.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 149.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 134.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 130$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 41c | 115$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 54c | 105.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 39c | 96.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 94.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 82.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 78.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 64c | 78.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 77.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 30c | 76.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5628backed Yes | 66c | 75.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 73.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 64.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 45c | 64.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…bdf2backed No | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 65c | 60.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 55c | 56.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 52c | 53.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 28c | 53.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…3963backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 51c | 48.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 47.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 68c | 47.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 47.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 43.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 40.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 39.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 50c | 38.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a6…8068backed Yes | 56c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 35.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Yes | 62c | 32.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 74c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 78c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…b38ebacked Yes | 56c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 23.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 23.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…d9aabacked Yes | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.