TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Zadar: Daniel Michalski vs Arthur Gea

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arthur Geaof Daniel Michalski, Arthur Gea
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,586 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Daniel Michalski18c12,546$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.672,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Arthur Gea73c5,750$4,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.9267249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Daniel Michalski19c5,650$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0587,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Daniel Michalski11c4,318$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.426,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Arthur Gea77c4,261$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.3365959%389 W · 270 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Daniel Michalski11c2,089$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.782,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Arthur Gea75c1,976$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.9920847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Daniel Michalski28c1,917$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.711,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Arthur Gea73c1,378$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.2346473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Arthur Gea74c1,343$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6718651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Daniel Michalski25c1,249$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.2319338.9%75 W · 118 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+109.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Daniel Michalski28c1,177$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6222242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Daniel Michalski28c1,115$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.091,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Daniel Michalski28c999.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.994,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Arthur Gea73c958.9$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.915862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Daniel Michalski26c958$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9246932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Arthur Gea71c948.41$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.3573453%389 W · 345 L+36.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60fc…03b0backed Arthur Gea77c914$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2145745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Arthur Gea72c833.33$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.339761.9%60 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Daniel Michalski19c800.68$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.923429.1%68 W · 166 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed Arthur Gea76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c32…d322backed Arthur Gea73c689.48$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4812066.7%80 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Daniel Michalski22c503.34$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.454,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Daniel Michalski19c477.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2635132.2%113 W · 238 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Daniel Michalski27c463.11$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.047,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Arthur Gea79c457.1$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.613966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Daniel Michalski28c443.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.127,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Arthur Gea72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671681.3%13 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick70cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Arthur Gea72c416.66$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.662,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Daniel Michalski15c402.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6267836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Daniel Michalski16c361.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.921720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa24…b2b4backed Daniel Michalski14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Daniel Michalski14c283.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.962,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Daniel Michalski29c283.09$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3854434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Daniel Michalski28c271.65$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.061,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Arthur Gea75c266.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9786470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Arthur Gea77c261.79$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.385,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383d…e2c3backed Daniel Michalski28c244$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Daniel Michalski23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028541.1%117 W · 168 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Daniel Michalski26c211.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.199,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…61fdbacked Daniel Michalski25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010649.1%52 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Daniel Michalski28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Michalski24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Daniel Michalski29c148.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4328322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Arthur Gea71c147.3$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.334965%227 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Arthur Gea71c140.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0457349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Arthur Gea71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Arthur Gea72c139$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9238268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arthur Gea72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8948043.3%208 W · 272 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d46…26d8backed Arthur Gea78c137.53$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.117762.7%111 W · 66 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Arthur Gea73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.998269.5%57 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Daniel Michalski25c125$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2535040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Daniel Michalski29c120.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3531643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Daniel Michalski25c114.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.653544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Arthur Gea71c112.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5812664.3%81 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Daniel Michalski27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017051.8%88 W · 82 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Daniel Michalski25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.514746.3%68 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Daniel Michalski16c108.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.767,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…fe3bbacked Daniel Michalski30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Arthur Gea72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2841272.8%300 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Daniel Michalski28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830452%158 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6040…33a9backed Daniel Michalski28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287237.5%27 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dbc…d46fbacked Daniel Michalski13c97.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.721533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Daniel Michalski22c94.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.313,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Daniel Michalski27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,08754.1%1,130 W · 957 L+64.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Daniel Michalski16c84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8218020.6%37 W · 143 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Daniel Michalski16c84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3626941.3%111 W · 158 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Daniel Michalski25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205651.8%29 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Daniel Michalski28c79.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.552,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x834c…89a9backed Daniel Michalski25c79.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6196…1a64backed Arthur Gea73c75.34$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3416957.4%97 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Arthur Gea72c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2135344.8%158 W · 195 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e65dbacked Daniel Michalski27c69.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Arthur Gea72c69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3253457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093a…1b3fbacked Arthur Gea72c68.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1727566.5%183 W · 92 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af9…5bf2backed Arthur Gea76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.793174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Arthur Gea72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5614161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Daniel Michalski28c47.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.234648.3%167 W · 179 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Daniel Michalski28c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Daniel Michalski26c38.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.092,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Arthur Gea73c38.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3687837.2%327 W · 551 L-2.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad0…cdc2backed Arthur Gea72c37.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.511148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Arthur Gea74c33.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6420758%120 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b9…948abacked Arthur Gea73c31.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3942358.6%248 W · 175 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc871…2f76backed Arthur Gea72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.788169.1%56 W · 25 L-0.4wins0.00per pick70cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4378…5bb8backed Arthur Gea72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7810363.1%65 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a5…80d4backed Arthur Gea73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.431853.5%170 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Arthur Gea71c18.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3158067.8%393 W · 187 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Arthur Gea74c17.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.532450.9%165 W · 159 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Arthur Gea80c15.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0885742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.