Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa78f5ea6a1a65489d20e914746c2d2f8f1205f576679eab9e53cf8c4fe27de4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 3c | 10,931$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.34 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 0c | 6,110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 2,127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 9c | 2,018$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 3c | 1,780$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 855.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 35c | 780.4$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 600.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…bb67backed Yes | 46c | 520.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 58c | 512.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 65c | 365.97$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 12c | 335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 42c | 300.02$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…feddbacked Yes | 41c | 278.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +201%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 11c | 265$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 9c | 233.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…a0c4backed Yes | 9c | 221.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 143.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 80c | 94.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 68c | 88.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 54c | 74.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 55c | 60.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…75e8backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 46.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 42.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.