Fifa International · resolved market
Will South Africa vs. Nicaragua end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7961463d53bc569d18e93c4b8dd25e8b8ff07546922e0026cd616720ff4bb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 6,868$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.53 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 61c | 3,239$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.41 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 24c | 3,134$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.79 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 72c | 1,486$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.02 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Yes | 66c | 1,130$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Yes | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 50c | 943.4$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.1 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 48c | 802.16$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.04 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 46c | 595.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.08 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 591.53$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.34 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa902…d159backed Yes | 29c | 566.15$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 71c | 505.99$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.43 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 60c | 499.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 16c | 468.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 99 | 7.1%7 W · 92 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…c002backed Yes | 56c | 455.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 68c | 453.51$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b5…8341backed Yes | 22c | 414.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +355.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 78c | 401.51$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.6 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed Yes | 12c | 348.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.3 | 564 | 10.5%59 W · 505 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Yes | 9c | 347.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.32 | 333 | 50.5%168 W · 165 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 29c | 281$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.79 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 39c | 270.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…4da6backed No | 71c | 254.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 56c | 250.69$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 19c | 220.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 275 | 38.5%106 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 14c | 208.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 489 | 37%181 W · 308 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 29c | 195$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked Yes | 12c | 195$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 250 | 31.6%79 W · 171 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 33c | 187.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 459 | 47.7%219 W · 240 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 161.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 450 | 39.6%178 W · 272 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…b3abbacked Yes | 12c | 161.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 275 | 20.4%56 W · 219 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…b420backed Yes | 37c | 145.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 220 | 26.4%58 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 140.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Yes | 12c | 131.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 74c | 126.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 377 | 47.7%180 W · 197 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c588backed Yes | 29c | 97.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…a6a6backed Yes | 15c | 93.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 50c | 85.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 27c | 73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked No | 26c | 71.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 52c | 63.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked No | 63c | 61.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 65c | 55.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 56c | 53.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…29efbacked Yes | 61c | 49.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…6db1backed Yes | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…63c4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 211 | 66.4%140 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…7cb5backed Yes | 60c | 39.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 73c | 37.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 69c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…a67dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 24.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…eb9dbacked Yes | 54c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…93f4backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…20f7backed Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will South Africa vs. Nicaragua end in a draw?this page
- Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29?No won
- Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.