Champions League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa83c6658ebb68c9775f60a2e0a6cbffc02d82752fde8d2f1c6e8d45cb0232df4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked No | 18c | 27,028$4,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,896.9 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 16c | 11,800$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.98 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 7,166$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.44 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…79a8backed No | 20c | 6,202$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…0fa7backed No | 18c | 5,472$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.03 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 18c | 5,061$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.76 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed No | 19c | 4,273$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 4,244$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.56 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 18c | 4,124$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.03 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 17c | 3,902$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.66 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…edf8backed No | 17c | 3,304$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 5c | 3,172$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked No | 18c | 3,112$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.14 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed No | 9c | 2,320$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 20c | 1,932$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.43 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 1,761$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.69 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 19c | 1,629$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.36 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed No | 20c | 1,476$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 6c | 1,437$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed No | 20c | 1,270$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked No | 17c | 1,225$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed No | 18c | 1,136$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 179 | 7.8%14 W · 165 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 17c | 1,050$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.45 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 16c | 1,041$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 17c | 1,030$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 16c | 1,009$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed No | 7c | 891.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 20c | 889.68$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed No | 18c | 849.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 18c | 789.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 19c | 684$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked No | 18c | 624.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 16c | 588$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 4c | 549.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 18c | 513.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2d…6443backed No | 19c | 502.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…b9febacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 15c | 426.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 18c | 425.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 17c | 420.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed No | 15c | 372.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…2aecbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 18c | 169.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…8283backed No | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed No | 19c | 159.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 16c | 152.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed No | 19c | 151$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed No | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 19c | 116.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 16c | 106.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…35d6backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed No | 17c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed No | 20c | 94.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 15c | 87.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 16c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed No | 19c | 76.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…7fdbbacked No | 17c | 64.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 20c | 51.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Yes | 80c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 79cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked No | 24c | 43.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…d5b7backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-21?this page
- Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Górnik Zabrze end in a draw?No won
- Will Górnik Zabrze win on 2026-07-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.