TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,451 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc984…195ebacked No70c642.84$450 inWon+$192.844850%24 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Yes38c482.21$181 inLost-$181.4346145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Yes4c400$16 inLost-$1630224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No63c313.16$197 inWon+$11690863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Yes38c263.16$100 inLost-$1008342.2%35 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes37c144$53 inLost-$53.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Yes30c67.16$20 inLost-$2011050.9%56 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b7…4f3ebacked Yes32c63$20 inLost-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No69c50$35 inWon+$15.527074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Yes31c50$16 inLost-$15.530244%133 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…798abacked No68c47$32 inWon+$15.045470.4%38 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No64c40$25 inWon+$14.660267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No64c40$25 inWon+$14.614560.7%88 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd1…6a87backed No63c37.88$24 inWon+$14.0211565.2%75 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No70c35.45$25 inWon+$10.632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked No62c16.46$10 inWon+$6.2546255.6%257 W · 205 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.