NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd91ad54abef6744fca3ab40ed1b2f41b1e9d2f882433406eaf7476ca57df5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Timberwolves, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,504 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 7,000$3,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,620 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 4,874$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.64 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 3,943$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,750$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.57 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Timberwolves | 47c | 3,748$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.47 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 3,708$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 3,703$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.38 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,467$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,145$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.1 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Timberwolves | 50c | 980$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Timberwolves | 22c | 524.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Trail Blazers | 77c | 494.38$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Timberwolves | 52c | 462.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 259.66$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers | 62c | 252.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Timberwolves | 51c | 207.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Timberwolves | 38c | 189.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 147.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 122.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 47c | 104.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Timberwolves | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…2112backed Timberwolves | 56c | 53.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Timberwolves | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Timberwolves | 50c | 44.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Timberwolves | 48c | 44.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 45.9%106 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 200 | 49%98 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Timberwolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Timberwolves | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Bones Hyland: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. TimberwolvesTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.