Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa96ab797058f1dfaee75c984cd677f1f0353a58646ca674532929cb83f109f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 7,614$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 5,896$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 5c | 4,916$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 3,244$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,302$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 7c | 1,523$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 999.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 715.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 2c | 650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 641.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 2c | 640.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 6c | 610.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 560$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 4c | 553.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 7c | 492.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 459.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 439.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 420$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 335.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 6c | 324.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked No | 75c | 300$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 6c | 280.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 13c | 213.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed Yes | 11c | 202.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 198.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 6c | 196.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 19c | 187.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52d6…f48bbacked No | 75c | 184$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 8c | 139.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 77c | 129.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…5d45backed Yes | 11c | 110.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 25c | 76.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 75.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf549…1472backed No | 78c | 66.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 60.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 48.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked No | 75c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.