Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39d692b085424d4ecde07ab81c40f812b6bd6518c50b7e968c29c9f0f18b591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,644$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.97 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 5c | 1,095$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 28c | 860.82$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 17c | 720.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 604.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 574.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 75c | 531.29$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 78c | 480$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 5c | 357.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 19c | 338.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…087abacked Yes | 74c | 327.97$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 79c | 249.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 246.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 241.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 72c | 217.09$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 34c | 198.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 63c | 161.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 64c | 156.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 71c | 137.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…10dfbacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 77c | 135.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 134$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 133.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 79c | 132.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…e5b9backed Yes | 69c | 115.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 74c | 107.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 42c | 100.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 20c | 82.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 51c | 81.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 14c | 77.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 77.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 29c | 75.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 60c | 66.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 78c | 59.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 25c | 57.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 53c | 51.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 69c | 50.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 47c | 50.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 77c | 47.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…06a5backed Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 70c | 43.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 74c | 42.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 73c | 40.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…39c0backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…8b85backed Yes | 79c | 32.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 80c | 27.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 60c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 75c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 74c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…73efbacked Yes | 73c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 45°F or below on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 56°F or higher on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on December 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.