TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6185…2965backed No73c62,618$45,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,650.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes27c25,394$6,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,534.371,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes27c11,858$3,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,656.2869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes52c11,201$5,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,344.842556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Yes29c8,700$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,177862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes27c8,148$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,948.0438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes28c5,928$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,268.157443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes26c5,892$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.333,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No63c4,313$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No73c4,052$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.992955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes28c3,749$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.5222047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No48c3,259$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No73c2,226$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.984658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes28c2,081$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.081,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8410…d59cbacked No72c1,937$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes28c1,762$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.6756951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes63c1,270$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.844030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes23c1,255$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.1110026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No70c1,160$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.256167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes28c1,108$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.863036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No76c1,029$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.68547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73029855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes28c941.15$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.637935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed Yes37c835.08$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.354360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x287a…02d2backed No71c765.45$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.472369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Yes29c655.89$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes28c646$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.126752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes27c632.97$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.075461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c547.75$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7422221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No71c529$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4919347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No72c520.52$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.786256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No13c502.29$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1714315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7858…a5eabacked Yes27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3651861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61b9…8913backed Yes56c353.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb485…20a5backed Yes58c347.21$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked No73c342.47$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked No52c313.99$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes65c307.9$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes28c303.57$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.573941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No72c279.85$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.16860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked No72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes27c270$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9842046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No57c267$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked No77c261.21$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.13751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes27c250.65$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.9875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No72c241.45$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Yes27c225.1$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.429850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Yes28c219.54$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.073641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes27c200.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.069746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…5ac3backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14238646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa13f…0730backed Yes51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Yes52c193.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.061662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.312326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x482c…4da1backed Yes28c178.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed No73c174$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.022259.1%13 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick75cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xafca…80f8backed Yes29c166.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+96.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes27c162.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11833047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Yes28c139.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.241258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed No73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Yes27c129.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.625942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes28c128$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes28c125$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No50c121.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes66c114.65$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No17c95.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1724541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked No53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes27c93.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4421450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No66c90.1$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes25c88.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.964535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes27c85.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes28c81.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5210552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes28c77.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.81650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes68c73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6523842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4318140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71fe…6a3abacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes55c70.61$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5611356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked No72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e59…cc2ebacked No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fca…819abacked Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes28c66.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed No71c64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.441050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed No65c62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.584555.6%25 W · 20 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6dd3…87b5backed Yes28c61.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No47c60.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.96457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9f…b23bbacked No72c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes41c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2822245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d46…4130backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.54447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1720…ef36backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+99.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.