TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d91…df18backed Yes0c98,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes40c41,871$16,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,748.322941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes41c30,382$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,5003636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No60c23,831$14,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,532.576465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No60c18,983$11,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,593.24456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No76c10,273$7,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.653,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes11c7,623$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358d…f465backed No61c6,471$3,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,532.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4006058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes42c5,271$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.9634547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No74c4,707$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.192,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No61c4,202$2,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.3748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes40c2,273$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.4729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes6c1,804$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2110641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed No63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.31070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No80c1,490$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.817749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed No48c1,323$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.563644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No59c1,275$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.2122047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes48c1,218$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.137757.1%44 W · 33 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4927639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No78c1,189$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.9820548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No57c1,108$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.3969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes53c1,069$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.9716045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41016343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No76c955.5$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.71,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes39c941.15$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.057935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No73c896.41$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.228547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed No73c885.73$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.777349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.337967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes39c821.79$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes37c802.85$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.0238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No59c711.04$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes39c693.65$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.21,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes14c650$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.110026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes12c619.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes43c610.41$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.859937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…90cbbacked No58c599.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes15c597.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.593342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes41c585.39$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5619347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes22c583.32$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.994535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c580.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8622221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed No70c572.36$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.354163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Yes41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No60c475.16$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.8123046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes43c467.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…348dbacked Yes42c450$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1891442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4192…d6aabacked No59c420$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed No59c420$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No71c405.03$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed No59c370$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.72850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes14c363.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No58c361.86$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.016860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked No58c359.9$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.084971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed No59c353.32$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2111148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked No59c342.75$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.633961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes40c340$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12319446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No59c293.59$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.379048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No69c282.98$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8911356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed No60c281.93$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.063036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Yes10c267.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes22c245.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9919458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No70c240$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.627750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes43c233.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Yes43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes41c215.65$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.362250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No78c203.87$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071c…bab9backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes42c195.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.219746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked No59c192.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.623161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No58c180.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed No58c172.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1418554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked No58c172.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.147751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked No58c172.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.147450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes39c167.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.528950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No59c162.44$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6642046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Yes40c161$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Yes15c155.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.351520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f0…f1b2backed Yes43c151.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No62c137.51$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Yes41c137$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5421450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked No58c127.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.425940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf4…3d38backed Yes42c123.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ba…e793backed No76c123$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.024360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No60c119.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.596457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No76c119.51$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5120645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No60c118.96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1233047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Yes41c117.57$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.652326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No58c110$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.213555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Yes40c104$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7312056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No57c102.63$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3322245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No78c101.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes10c100.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No77c97.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked No80c87.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.771553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed No58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.213360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked No58c85.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.935052%26 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f55…4213backed No59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x140e…d205backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.