TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,096,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,098,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,096,956 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Orioles44c955,013$418,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536,141.6438043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Red Sox56c690,164$389,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389,540.771,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Red Sox55c112,794$62,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,036.7422852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Red Sox56c66,961$37,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,498.1635952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Red Sox55c26,315$14,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,482.6448254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Red Sox56c23,000$12,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,88055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Orioles44c20,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,30011150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Red Sox56c17,093$9,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,573.281,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Red Sox55c12,000$6,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,62038751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox48c10,659$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,097.029,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Orioles45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50034245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles47c9,910$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,252.7433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Red Sox55c7,826$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,304.2943949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Sox55c7,800$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2901,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Red Sox38c6,440$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.2445248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f73…8d13backed Orioles74c5,195$3,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3363953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac90…1882backed Orioles43c5,011$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.262937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Red Sox56c4,620$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.216352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Red Sox46c4,181$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.5321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63d…9dd6backed Red Sox57c3,775$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.752665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Red Sox55c3,400$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87711553%61 W · 54 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Red Sox36c3,279$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.991,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox56c3,125$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.992,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Red Sox56c2,927$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.9738047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Orioles45c2,769$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.371,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Orioles43c2,651$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.960249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Red Sox55c2,500$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38556451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Orioles77c2,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5757455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Red Sox46c2,284$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05895930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Red Sox56c2,250$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26073352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Red Sox56c1,820$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.21,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Red Sox57c1,642$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.1825454.3%138 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Red Sox28c1,595$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.616,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Red Sox56c1,551$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.6898149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4950…0031backed Orioles43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8555644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…e22fbacked Red Sox56c1,366$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Orioles39c1,300$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79331248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Orioles43c1,231$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.4171751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Orioles44c1,150$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64416349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58a0…0065backed Orioles44c1,141$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Orioles39c1,102$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.7635854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60557744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f23…babebacked Red Sox56c1,082$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…3b2fbacked Red Sox56c1,068$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox58c1,062$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.92,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Red Sox57c1,038$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.6620850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd801…2b66backed Red Sox56c1,030$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b68…72c7backed Orioles44c1,009$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.04850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fb…849ebacked Red Sox56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5605743.9%25 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Red Sox25c978.29$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7954345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Orioles44c909.09$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.0965248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles44c800$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44883248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb99…3587backed Orioles44c795$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Red Sox12c790.13$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0696133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Orioles43c781.53$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.4716651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Orioles44c750$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42030850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Red Sox53c731.28$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.028,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Red Sox56c714.94$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.071,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Red Sox38c682.97$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.3610548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles44c680.98$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.351,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Orioles45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6766645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec1…94c3backed Orioles44c575$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb472…9145backed Orioles44c571$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+66.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Red Sox57c570$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.926650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Red Sox58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Red Sox55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27521538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Red Sox56c498.84$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.358749.4%43 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a0…deeabacked Orioles44c455$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles42c454$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.3250843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Orioles46c400.8$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.4812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Red Sox20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Orioles39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Orioles70c360.62$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.68366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Orioles61c360$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.061,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Orioles64c350$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.521656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Red Sox57c350$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.565549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f70…63b2backed Orioles44c350$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles44c349.98$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles44c345$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.21,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Red Sox57c334.18$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4880955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Orioles45c334$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.717946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Red Sox58c302$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1651953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Orioles45c276.6$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1370946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Red Sox57c261$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.771,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Red Sox16c252.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8945732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Orioles42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.11,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Orioles78c237.54$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.263100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b84…9d3bbacked Red Sox24c235.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5918350.3%92 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles43c233.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Orioles45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Red Sox76c211.92$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0613021.5%28 W · 102 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Orioles39c199.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.992,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Red Sox7c188.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Orioles43c187.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.881,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Orioles41c186.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0154441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Red Sox57c178.95$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10299951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Orioles53c178.72$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8416947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Red Sox56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016659.6%99 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.