MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaa69d6668a36d5cb0069a2c5a8365d5819933d6be403b1a6000cd8a8e4ba50e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 18,792$8,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,253.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 10,492$5,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,029.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 31c | 4,646$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.95 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 69c | 4,499$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 32c | 3,687$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.67 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 2,746$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 67c | 2,300$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 2,222$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.9 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 1,634$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,132$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 979$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 69c | 770.64$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.98 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 408.55$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 69c | 402.29$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 67c | 390$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 66c | 370$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 26c | 307.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 259.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 79c | 109.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 108.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 33c | 88.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 60c | 64.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 56.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Under | 60c | 56.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 61c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 72c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 72c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.