MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f693d09ba2a5d17c5355dba7705582a4808f7532f482c61ddb97af2e769173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 26,060$13,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,020.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 10,653$5,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,551.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 9,199$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,940.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 5,286$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.95 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 3,736$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,916$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 77c | 1,756$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 1,212$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,185$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.48 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 846.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.17 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…2d0fbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 811.86$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 726$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.66 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 630$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 594$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.48 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 476$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 354.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 303.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 166.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 165.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins | 79c | 67.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 63.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 57.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 48.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 46.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Minnesota Twins | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 36.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 31.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 26.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 26.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 22.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.