TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EDward Gamingof EDward Gaming, Paper Rex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,653 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e35…2614backed Paper Rex73c18,382$13,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,347.612927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Paper Rex80c14,565$11,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,621.661154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick74cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed EDward Gaming35c11,155$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,303.8224145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked EDward Gaming37c10,306$3,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,476.3526650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Paper Rex70c8,614$6,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,023.9254751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked EDward Gaming35c6,792$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,434.5868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Paper Rex61c5,568$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,378.0628541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked EDward Gaming40c4,531$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.2865559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked EDward Gaming44c4,286$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.346150.8%31 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EDward Gaming25c4,001$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,989.5793049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed EDward Gaming47c3,567$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.2153159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked EDward Gaming32c3,537$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.259340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed Paper Rex18c3,465$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.651963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked EDward Gaming30c3,027$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.049151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed EDward Gaming13c3,016$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.8814750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed EDward Gaming46c2,588$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.9656357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed EDward Gaming43c2,233$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.456373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Paper Rex64c1,937$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.0778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Paper Rex66c1,936$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.492245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf1…ffbdbacked Paper Rex58c1,800$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0411952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef07…bb26backed Paper Rex53c1,799$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Paper Rex69c1,647$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.443053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Paper Rex65c1,604$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.3112143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked EDward Gaming42c1,580$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Paper Rex67c1,579$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.91,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed EDward Gaming29c1,501$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.6939042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Paper Rex64c1,401$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.971,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked EDward Gaming30c1,349$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.7528747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex57c1,345$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.3388844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Paper Rex60c1,338$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Paper Rex71c1,280$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.4725660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7657…66ccbacked Paper Rex72c1,227$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.282576%19 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked EDward Gaming29c1,191$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.0753355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Paper Rex62c1,160$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.011,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Paper Rex70c1,143$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005749.1%28 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EDward Gaming52c1,136$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.1694361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…d6fabacked EDward Gaming9c1,111$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+155.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed EDward Gaming30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabcc…10b4backed EDward Gaming30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbb…5e47backed EDward Gaming14c996.23$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.23922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Paper Rex76c984.22$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.01850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Paper Rex58c951.98$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Paper Rex65c943.32$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.9726450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Paper Rex54c924.15$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.7677744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x154f…893ebacked EDward Gaming28c890.34$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Paper Rex59c870$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.581,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Paper Rex59c845$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.671,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Paper Rex72c783$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.8533153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked EDward Gaming18c732.43$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.5516347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed EDward Gaming28c726.86$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.442744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed EDward Gaming29c720.35$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.3415038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5a…656cbacked Paper Rex49c707.09$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.671145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Paper Rex61c706.63$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1823836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Paper Rex67c692.23$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.7125453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Paper Rex55c673.74$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.6251749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed EDward Gaming16c628.02$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+162.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed EDward Gaming47c625.31$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.272055%11 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed EDward Gaming47c576.75$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.866259.7%37 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa851…4dedbacked EDward Gaming19c526.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Paper Rex39c522.56$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1168949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed EDward Gaming54c515.28$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.527565.3%49 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Paper Rex64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed EDward Gaming26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Paper Rex59c499.99$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.9924946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd06…f0c1backed EDward Gaming24c497.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.313046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Paper Rex29c486.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.681,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd18c…6205backed EDward Gaming19c473.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.68425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Paper Rex44c458.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017332.4%56 W · 117 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Paper Rex64c427$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9499846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed Paper Rex56c414.29$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed EDward Gaming72c404.32$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.324755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked EDward Gaming28c400.92$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.3755637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Paper Rex70c399.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28018049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Paper Rex72c385.1$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.271283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Paper Rex57c354.59$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8770043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7b…bfeebacked Paper Rex46c352.23$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.72231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Paper Rex59c343$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3996245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Paper Rex59c338.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.921,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Paper Rex57c335.36$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2534954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Paper Rex51c323.73$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3541835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EDward Gaming47c320.18$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1824457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked Paper Rex69c320$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.85660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Paper Rex35c317$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.956048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed EDward Gaming32c304$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.729046.7%42 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Paper Rex61c286.21$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8890733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed EDward Gaming19c263$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0314252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed EDward Gaming61c253.58$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.0720755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Paper Rex66c251.77$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.091,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paper Rex35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.51,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Paper Rex53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.533947.8%162 W · 177 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Paper Rex71c245.38$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510975.2%82 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9db…1f05backed EDward Gaming46c239.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed EDward Gaming20c238.43$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3310842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f0…971ebacked EDward Gaming32c224$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.321947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd06…d1f3backed Paper Rex50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4307…df08backed Paper Rex50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed EDward Gaming20c190$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15213933.1%46 W · 93 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked EDward Gaming20c190$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15215535.5%55 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked EDward Gaming33c189.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.752552%13 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Paper Rex57c187.64$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4427847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.