TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,388 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x683a…274ebacked Cavaliers53c2,323$1,231 inLost-$1,230.918536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder47c2,316$1,081 inWon+$1,235.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers6c649$39 inLost-$38.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers40c274.05$108 inLost-$108.271,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6339…141ebacked Thunder70c150$105 inWon+$452045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Thunder49c66.75$33 inWon+$34.0430151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Thunder49c61.22$30 inWon+$31.2225655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Thunder48c50.29$24 inWon+$26.1529352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb788…2833backed Thunder39c50$19 inWon+$30.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…9b16backed Thunder54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.043565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers67c22.77$15 inLost-$15.261,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.