NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ecf27864ecdffe2048259082ec65b1c721e0c07bf67b098008c23045bde56a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 55c | 30,227$16,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,705.86 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 13,627$6,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,232.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 7,312$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.93 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…ad46backed Under | 48c | 5,323$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…a6b0backed Over | 52c | 4,150$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Over | 52c | 3,972$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,641$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.91 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…69c2backed Over | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd997…53f2backed Under | 48c | 2,185$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…d3bbbacked Under | 48c | 2,141$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 2,069$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.77 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Under | 48c | 2,027$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.96 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 1,510$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.92 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 1,437$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 44c | 1,436$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.82 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a070backed Over | 52c | 1,338$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 1,069$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.32 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 924.19$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 727.32$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.63 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 44c | 688$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 56c | 604$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.76 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 435.33$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 350.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 53c | 248.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 15c | 214.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 45c | 181.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Under | 48c | 181.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Over | 51c | 137.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 50c | 134$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 57c | 120.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Under | 26c | 113.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 44c | 103.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 55c | 98.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 63c | 92.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…8158backed Over | 54c | 92.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…234fbacked Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 45c | 73.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Over | 56c | 58.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 45c | 57.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…4793backed Over | 53c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…585fbacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 46c | 27.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 22.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Cavaliers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.