NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b22159fe55f2d1b0f23936cb6eccdaedf3c7b532d3f55659a38a1e6bbe6aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 17,884$7,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,887.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 57c | 17,624$10,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,584.26 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 56c | 6,354$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.48 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 6,220$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 49c | 2,045$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.05 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 2,040$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.42 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.01 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 57c | 1,418$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 22c | 1,285$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 45c | 1,080$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 54c | 1,070$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.38 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 42c | 599.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 446.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 46c | 428.26$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 408.7$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 48c | 379.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 334.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 43c | 323.35$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 306.17$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 40c | 140.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 113.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 43c | 97.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…d308backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 43c | 91.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 57c | 88.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 58c | 80.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4015…c724backed Over | 56c | 53.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 20c | 53.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 47.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 44.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b82…3541backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…5324backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 48c | 34.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…d8f0backed Over | 54c | 31.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…b614backed Under | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e56…114dbacked Under | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664f…78f4backed Under | 47c | 28.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ba…c770backed Over | 54c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…6854backed Over | 54c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29d…ab4ebacked Over | 54c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7d…b41bbacked Under | 47c | 24.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…89e4backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Cavaliers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.