TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Cavaliers, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7817…d4b1backed Cavaliers1c2,972$18 inLost-$17.551625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers6c2,913$186 inLost-$186.185,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Cavaliers9c1,032$90 inLost-$89.7448956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb0…4488backed Cavaliers61c318.03$194 inLost-$1946647%31 W · 35 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1452…3c00backed Thunder43c305.4$131 inWon+$174.084447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a84…af78backed Cavaliers61c86.79$53 inLost-$52.9416654.8%91 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…b0a5backed Thunder43c81.4$35 inWon+$46.45731.6%18 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Cavaliers63c60.19$38 inLost-$384551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed Thunder37c52$19 inWon+$32.762944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Cavaliers61c49.18$30 inLost-$309552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder39c49.18$19 inWon+$304,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x563c…0dbfbacked Cavaliers61c35.03$21 inLost-$21.3716352.1%85 W · 78 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers56c31.74$18 inLost-$17.932,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8b…039abacked Cavaliers61c30.23$18 inLost-$18.4412450.8%63 W · 61 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Cavaliers37c29.73$11 inLost-$119844.9%44 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xece0…1754backed Thunder70c27.57$19 inWon+$8.273855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers57c23.44$13 inLost-$13.312,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dd…ba4ebacked Cavaliers61c22.14$14 inLost-$13.517850%39 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0107…bce5backed Cavaliers62c21.32$13 inLost-$13.22944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7794…4e43backed Cavaliers58c17.4$10 inLost-$10.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-48.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.