NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6868495a8dfc685a12b307d16318d99001e786c44e11afaf1cd23b651ab8790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Cavaliers, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 74c | 7,718$5,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 26c | 5,511$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 2,607$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 42c | 2,264$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.37 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Cavaliers | 58c | 2,165$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.38 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Thunder | 41c | 1,601$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.39 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Thunder | 42c | 1,571$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.42 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cavaliers | 59c | 1,516$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.44 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Cavaliers | 59c | 996.33$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.6 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 46c | 977.9$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.72 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 59c | 879$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.61 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 42c | 692.63$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 51c | 620$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 41c | 544.82$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.63 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Cavaliers | 37c | 491.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 60c | 313.88$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Cavaliers | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…ae4cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 218.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Thunder | 42c | 189.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 61c | 164.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Cavaliers | 25c | 151.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 35c | 126.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Thunder | 74c | 106.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Thunder | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…166abacked Thunder | 42c | 85.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 57c | 62.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Thunder | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 56.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 47c | 50.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Cavaliers | 53c | 50.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cavaliers | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder | 40c | 47.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 59c | 47.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cavaliers | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Thunder | 43c | 42.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Thunder | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cavaliers | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…eb45backed Thunder | 42c | 34.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Cavaliers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Thunder | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Thunder | 47c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Cavaliers | 55c | 21.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Cavaliers | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Cavaliers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.