NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc37de630dfdef23911269cd69f345302caf36b29a086dfc20b50c880ceba78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 10,446$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 17c | 8,379$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.81 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over | 59c | 7,739$4,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,172.99 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…4f79backed Under | 38c | 7,734$2,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…e5b5backed Over | 62c | 4,405$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cb…f5eabacked Over | 62c | 3,325$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 55c | 3,265$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…ae4cbacked Under | 43c | 1,920$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 1,685$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 1,125$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 58c | 869.99$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.4 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 58c | 839.66$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.66 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…ff42backed Over | 62c | 801.49$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 41c | 729.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.73 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 633.15$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 606$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 57c | 552.52$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.58 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 25c | 380.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 329.95$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 18c | 292.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 45c | 275.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 59c | 239.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Over | 62c | 212.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…c607backed Over | 75c | 167.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…f13bbacked Over | 63c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 58c | 148.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 69c | 145.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Under | 45c | 137.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Under | 14c | 128.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Over | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…6165backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 23c | 75.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…e89dbacked Over | 69c | 67.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 41c | 60.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Under | 40c | 49.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 41c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…5116backed Over | 63c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed59…49dfbacked Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2988backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…93a8backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…13c9backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c4…d9e3backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 77c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Cavaliers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.