Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac861052b8e3054964b29f8f8b7b59fa8367c28a9c98db40fb910cc2e0992616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 28c | 984.99$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.65 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 846.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 74c | 612.49$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 25c | 515.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 21c | 324$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…f2e5backed No | 74c | 135.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 135$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 91.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 86.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 28c | 86.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 65c | 71.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Yes | 20c | 67.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 54.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 35.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4446backed Yes | 64c | 31.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 75c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…d9cfbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…fb09backed No | 75c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?this page
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?Yes won
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.