Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23db1dc2d821c8efcf077ddceb77b4e3d5ca5a2778327fdb1612beeb9e7659e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 1,479$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 806$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 70c | 576.11$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 63c | 502.85$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 409.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 78c | 315$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 299.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 261$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 21c | 216.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 167.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 25c | 165$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 144.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 60c | 122.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 111.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…52abbacked Yes | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 29c | 72.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 60.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 44c | 54.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 38.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?this page
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.