Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca24171ee0e1a1e60e0ad04d017712ee00b48b94513eaf33f78fb4b6a6218a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,890$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 69c | 784.74$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.67 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 60c | 653.73$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.15 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 47c | 618.44$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.77 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 492.68$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 392.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 390.14$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 53c | 380.58$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 76c | 379.87$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 376.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 58c | 360.47$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 58c | 342.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 57c | 334.42$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 59c | 331.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 323.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 47c | 312.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 303.42$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 289.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 32c | 289.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 30c | 278.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 252.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 234.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 229.58$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 43c | 222.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 32c | 221.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked No | 39c | 211.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 195.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 51c | 174.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 169.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 55c | 161.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 42c | 160.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 155.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 30c | 150.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 66c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 149.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 142.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 57c | 142.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 35c | 141$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 15c | 138.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 57c | 122.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 50c | 120.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 39c | 118.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 53c | 113.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 112.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 107.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 106.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 39c | 101.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 17c | 98.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 25c | 98.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 55c | 90.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 57c | 88.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 42c | 86.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…62e5backed Yes | 51c | 86.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 44c | 84.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a7…353fbacked Yes | 50c | 83.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 48c | 82.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 82.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked No | 36c | 82.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8d3dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 74.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 71.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 43c | 71.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 48c | 69.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…c25bbacked No | 46c | 65.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 27c | 63.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 56.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 53.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 69c | 50.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 50.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…54b3backed No | 30c | 49.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed Yes | 52c | 47.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked Yes | 69c | 47.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 47.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked Yes | 49c | 46.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…6037backed Yes | 64c | 46.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 45.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 38c | 43.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 40c | 43.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 48c | 43.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed No | 43c | 42.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…f754backed No | 74c | 41.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…ceebbacked Yes | 51c | 39.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 45c | 38.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 38.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…7802backed Yes | 53c | 37.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.