Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdee139f0d90bf1c893a378d0a91cbbe6bb6c655a1e5ec1b5fee1b6e919e4e850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 586.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 15c | 559.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 31c | 369.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 10c | 362.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 348.15$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 316.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 56c | 313.42$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 312.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 38c | 277.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 261.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 240.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 232.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 44c | 226.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 34c | 222.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 21c | 220.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.36 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 211.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 33c | 198.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 194.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 33c | 189.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 166.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 160.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 67c | 149.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 143.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 141.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 137.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 136.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 123.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 117.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 26c | 116.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 61c | 115.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 44c | 112.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 29c | 102.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 100.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 97.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 40c | 94.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 48c | 92.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 61c | 91.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 34c | 89.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 42c | 86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 82.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 81.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 81.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 80.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 38c | 79.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 37c | 75.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 69.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 67.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 62.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…9b6cbacked Yes | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 35c | 58.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 33c | 56.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 36c | 51.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 37c | 49.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 48.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 48.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 47.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 67c | 47.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 30c | 46.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 61c | 46.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 45.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 45.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 63c | 45.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 34c | 43.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 43.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 42c | 42.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 41.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 38c | 39.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 36c | 38.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.