TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes38c586.08$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.863,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No15c559.03$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7486420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked Yes31c369.97$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.244117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No10c362.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.242,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c348.15$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.063,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes62c316.68$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No56c313.42$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.278955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c312.93$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No38c277.18$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No56c261.07$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0959923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No19c240.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes26c232.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes44c226.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3410141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed Yes34c222.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.893745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes21c220.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c211.25$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed Yes33c198.65$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.167170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes19c194.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.431,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes33c189.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.9140025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes50c166.41$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c160.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.191,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No67c149.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c143.69$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.152,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No56c141.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c137.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.284,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No38c136.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.981,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes21c123.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.771,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes42c117.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes26c116.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3514941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No61c115.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.543046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes44c112.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.735940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes20c105$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.51,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No29c102.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c100.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.841,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c97.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes40c94.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1511146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9a…371abacked Yes48c92.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.911650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2983…cedfbacked Yes61c91.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.961338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa907…ba96backed Yes34c89.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5910955%60 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes42c86$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.865627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No65c82.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.392,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c81.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.132,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c81.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes34c80.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d35…3d76backed No54c79.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.195427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…1640backed Yes38c79.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.052982.8%24 W · 5 L+7.3wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes14c77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed No66c76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.163063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes37c75.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes43c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No64c69.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.921,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No73c67.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1242976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8202backed Yes50c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4510441.3%43 W · 61 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…eaaebacked Yes39c65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.651428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No62c62.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes30c62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf436…9b6cbacked Yes50c59.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes35c58.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2316030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes33c56.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.387939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes43c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.535233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.79,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes36c51.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No58c51.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9951631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.842544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.537942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2575…a354backed Yes33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.71838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x558e…cdabbacked Yes37c49.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.432638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d6…8b53backed No57c49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.815154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes28c48.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.731,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No53c48.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No53c47.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.122,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83df…362fbacked Yes67c47.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.651758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes30c46.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9916530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No61c46.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0616548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes39c46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.223743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c45.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.491,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes44c45.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.372,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No63c45.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.517365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.551,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.716234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked Yes34c43.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.867346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes40c43.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c42.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes42c42.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.797979.7%63 W · 16 L+9.4wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c41.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No57c39.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9593734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x197f…0caebacked Yes38c39.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes40c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.47037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes36c38.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4912539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes65c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.362142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.