TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Islanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Islandersof Lightning, Islanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$593,367
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$591,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,367 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Lightning57c100,000$56,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,50016656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Islanders48c82,833$39,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,315.911955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5e…fd91backed Islanders44c79,680$35,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,369.532462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Lightning53c75,803$40,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,160.8810349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Islanders43c65,697$28,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,558.7415953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Islanders47c51,510$24,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,300.3948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning47c30,000$13,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,95042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Islanders57c28,947$16,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,354.4638748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning52c24,900$12,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,9482,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae5…8342backed Lightning53c21,877$11,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,594.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning55c21,092$11,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,645.161,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Lightning54c20,376$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lightning53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,60032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning54c15,239$8,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,291.131,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…96d9backed Islanders45c15,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2501428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Islanders46c14,369$6,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,759.187946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Islanders45c14,278$6,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,852.6413049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Lightning58c12,711$7,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3633043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Lightning55c11,200$6,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,16015949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5001,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning52c9,408$4,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,89288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Islanders48c9,357$4,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,865.5189547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0566…9b36backed Lightning53c9,000$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Islanders47c8,500$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5051,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Lightning53c7,642$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,048.172955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders43c7,033$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,979.571,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lightning52c6,993$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.2247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Islanders45c6,425$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.7938844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning55c6,000$3,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27566951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Islanders42c5,600$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2483554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Islanders47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Islanders47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Lightning55c4,326$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.4627548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning53c4,238$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.251,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Islanders42c4,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9763249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning52c3,788$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.761,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Lightning53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Islanders47c3,640$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.257453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning56c3,401$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.5854047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Islanders43c3,333$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.8122546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning48c3,146$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.892,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Lightning54c2,889$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56015954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lightning56c2,817$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.0117744.6%79 W · 98 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning56c2,587$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.4929651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Islanders46c2,564$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.9593953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning54c2,500$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34026955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lightning53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.9956649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning54c2,217$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.342,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Islanders47c2,140$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.1922550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8526…3b5dbacked Lightning55c2,000$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1054134.1%14 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Lightning53c1,993$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.096246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning54c1,907$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.3875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Islanders43c1,898$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.8530551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Islanders40c1,881$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.2711947.9%57 W · 62 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lightning54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Lightning54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Islanders52c1,808$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.421,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lightning53c1,711$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.441,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Lightning1c1,666$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.667450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Islanders57c1,613$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.7885464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc668…b6d8backed Islanders47c1,600$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Lightning54c1,594$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.9964242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Lightning57c1,579$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lightning25c1,500$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.5782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2218…5ba2backed Islanders47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d5…3df2backed Islanders47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…52c1backed Islanders44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.641560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cce…709fbacked Lightning57c1,363$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning55c1,362$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.0575155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3021…3b3dbacked Islanders47c1,300$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Islanders42c1,258$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.777850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Islanders42c1,258$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.778354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Islanders47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63634845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f0…7facbacked Islanders47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Islanders48c1,193$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.951758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning53c1,158$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.961848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Islanders38c1,098$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.211,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff1f…d5dfbacked Lightning53c1,064$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…838fbacked Islanders47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Islanders48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.2943743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Lightning54c1,036$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.347546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Lightning48c1,031$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49628842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning56c1,022$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.321,07954.3%586 W · 493 L+4.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Lightning29c1,009$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.69850%49 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Lightning58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58033447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…f1eabacked Islanders47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x831c…f4eabacked Lightning52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Islanders42c999.98$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.997157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c5…b3adbacked Islanders47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Lightning52c999.98$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9975946.6%354 W · 405 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Islanders69c924.27$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.031,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Lightning54c900$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8824347.7%116 W · 127 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8692…f1bcbacked Islanders47c899.99$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Islanders48c870$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.49548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb9…41ecbacked Islanders47c810$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.31668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+43.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Lightning53c800$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6739047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Islanders43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45611849.2%58 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50cc…a534backed Lightning58c793.1$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010250%51 W · 51 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.