Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf0b9f55796431c531d3533a684d91413265f5530d4c466521c365f3c833678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 19c | 1,065$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 15c | 783.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 21c | 761.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 78c | 760.51$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 564.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 79c | 460$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 14c | 357.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 330 | 39.1%129 W · 201 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 80c | 318.76$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 17c | 275$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 20c | 240.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 230$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…5b75backed Yes | 78c | 204.4$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 14c | 191.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 12c | 152.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 13c | 103.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 100.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 368 | 38.3%141 W · 227 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…e3bfbacked No | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 19c | 61.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…bc63backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…518cbacked Yes | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…5cffbacked Yes | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad20…c9a5backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Conclave" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.