Premier League · resolved market
Will Ukraine win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad499c743d94d87093c74f756171a4dfed60a7361fa88bab3721ba61badd5aef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 45c | 145,103$65,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,821.95 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 54c | 50,641$27,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,346.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 54c | 20,109$10,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,859.24 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 55c | 12,450$6,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,847.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 54c | 10,300$5,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,561.9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 53c | 9,633$5,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,105.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 53c | 8,242$4,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.72 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 54c | 6,481$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 53c | 6,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 53c | 2,179$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.12 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 3c | 2,005$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 54c | 1,826$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.74 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…84edbacked Yes | 49c | 1,181$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…fb6cbacked No | 56c | 1,135$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 54c | 685.19$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…f52abacked Yes | 49c | 661.8$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked No | 54c | 583.11$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 46c | 554.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd0…c520backed Yes | 47c | 231.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…40fcbacked Yes | 40c | 222.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c1…a606backed Yes | 47c | 205.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…ba5abacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 35c | 123.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…113bbacked Yes | 38c | 117.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0017…6e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc82…76b5backed Yes | 11c | 98.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 34c | 92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…60e3backed Yes | 24c | 91.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +235.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 51c | 78.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…2b5dbacked Yes | 47c | 71.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Yes | 51c | 66.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…34a8backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +565.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…97cbbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ff…91a1backed Yes | 47c | 46.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d205backed Yes | 47c | 45.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…79e0backed No | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…ad5cbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbeb…b30bbacked Yes | 45c | 43.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…27fdbacked No | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…d6a5backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…9935backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…0d22backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…d337backed No | 58c | 34.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…ffb2backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…d714backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…5a2ebacked Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine win?this page
- Will Slovakia win?No won
- Will the match be a draw? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.