TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Ostrava Open: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Katie Boulter

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Boulterof Fruhvirtova, Boulter
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$540,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$744,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $540,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Boulter60c166,707$100,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,994.71771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Fruhvirtova40c100,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,999.9911633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Fruhvirtova39c34,167$13,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,325.0711242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x869f…7a8bbacked Boulter60c16,112$9,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,497.631361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Boulter60c13,962$8,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,564.3548851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fruhvirtova11c11,866$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.5911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Fruhvirtova43c11,041$4,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,711.3535247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Fruhvirtova40c10,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fruhvirtova23c8,491$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.462,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe63e…525abacked Fruhvirtova3c7,841$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2262313%3 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Fruhvirtova41c6,829$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Boulter59c5,983$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.785156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Boulter59c4,804$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.4923126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Boulter57c3,667$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5773834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Fruhvirtova6c3,520$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.362,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Fruhvirtova18c3,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.645036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Boulter67c2,936$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.6311560%69 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x713b…ee60backed Fruhvirtova43c2,794$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005628.6%16 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fruhvirtova40c2,712$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.781,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb729…4e2ebacked Boulter58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+58.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Fruhvirtova42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked Fruhvirtova20c2,181$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Boulter61c2,128$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.543042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Fruhvirtova42c1,954$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.66740.3%27 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Fruhvirtova43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Boulter76c1,691$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.72,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Boulter59c1,685$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.7444163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Boulter59c1,561$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.415862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Boulter60c1,553$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.2122641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Boulter60c1,480$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.8533955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Fruhvirtova42c1,324$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2484857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Boulter61c1,312$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.9738652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2db1…8275backed Fruhvirtova34c1,294$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fruhvirtova40c1,220$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.887,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Fruhvirtova43c1,204$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.331,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Fruhvirtova39c1,179$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.996439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Boulter61c1,168$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.12837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Fruhvirtova15c1,160$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1749737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Fruhvirtova44c1,137$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005036%18 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Fruhvirtova40c1,065$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.2895140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Fruhvirtova43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Fruhvirtova41c975.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004250%21 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Fruhvirtova4c957.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6380938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Boulter60c839.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.5318957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Fruhvirtova41c797.56$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32755646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Fruhvirtova40c796.4$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.762,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e02…1f4abacked Boulter62c779$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.02650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fruhvirtova40c750$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9735…b03bbacked Boulter57c699.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb62f…6836backed Fruhvirtova17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028530.6%26 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Fruhvirtova41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2466036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Fruhvirtova11c594.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.457533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Fruhvirtova40c550$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22025544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a0…6e5ebacked Fruhvirtova41c527.81$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Boulter61c519.67$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.679949.5%49 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Fruhvirtova40c511$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.448552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Fruhvirtova45c446.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Boulter50c442$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22131647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…540bbacked Fruhvirtova26c434.67$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fruhvirtova38c400.84$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.3287251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x458d…b7c8backed Fruhvirtova40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fruhvirtova37c399.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14834842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Boulter58c368$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.627,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Boulter62c362.9$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.914568.3%99 W · 46 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Fruhvirtova44c357.14$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15736038.9%140 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Fruhvirtova39c357$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3725428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c0a…7affbacked Fruhvirtova42c334.32$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a9…4e21backed Boulter60c333.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.431553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Fruhvirtova39c333$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8712631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Boulter72c305.04$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.043956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fruhvirtova40c301$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.41,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Boulter57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1292853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1412…15d5backed Boulter57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1292065%13 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc48a…c6c4backed Boulter53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1415514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Fruhvirtova40c298.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Fruhvirtova39c298.44$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3934745.2%157 W · 190 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Fruhvirtova39c288.55$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Fruhvirtova43c279.07$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Boulter73c273.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.795267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x411e…ea8bbacked Fruhvirtova8c251.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+165.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Fruhvirtova41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.566831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2db…ee20backed Boulter60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ad…f1e5backed Fruhvirtova41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Fruhvirtova41c241.46$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked Fruhvirtova42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb88…b1d7backed Fruhvirtova43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Fruhvirtova14c232$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9116132.3%52 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Boulter59c228.29$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…783bbacked Boulter61c222.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b46…bb95backed Boulter74c217.25$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.252878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Boulter65c214.27$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.473,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Fruhvirtova29c207.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.023,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Fruhvirtova41c205$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.578445.2%38 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Fruhvirtova40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8026247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f6b…8557backed Boulter61c197.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9869…e817backed Fruhvirtova6c190.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.442365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+34.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Boulter58c171.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Boulter59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4959965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Boulter60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.676758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e9…5dc4backed Boulter62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.