TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roehampton 2: George Loffhagen vs Alastair Gray

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
George Loffhagenof George Loffhagen, Alastair Gray
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed George Loffhagen65c15,114$9,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.518,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Alastair Gray30c7,078$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.3336640.7%149 W · 217 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Alastair Gray30c6,533$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alastair Gray29c3,811$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.428,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Alastair Gray43c3,644$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.271,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked George Loffhagen75c2,795$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.611,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3622…3facbacked George Loffhagen65c2,159$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.17668.4%52 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ef…abd6backed Alastair Gray54c2,082$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.72222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-47.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked George Loffhagen64c1,996$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.0729552.2%154 W · 141 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Alastair Gray27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018731%58 W · 129 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed George Loffhagen66c1,748$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.9770254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Alastair Gray36c1,393$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2531253.2%166 W · 146 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked Alastair Gray35c1,366$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8225854.3%140 W · 118 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Alastair Gray36c1,308$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.082,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed George Loffhagen69c1,290$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.693,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alastair Gray31c1,016$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.058,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed George Loffhagen48c1,004$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.084,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed George Loffhagen48c1,004$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.2648842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed George Loffhagen68c866.36$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.924,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed George Loffhagen45c822$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.532,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed George Loffhagen74c791.43$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4719041.6%79 W · 111 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed George Loffhagen73c706.76$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.011,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed George Loffhagen74c681.08$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0836946.9%173 W · 196 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alastair Gray30c679.87$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.681,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Alastair Gray31c677.5$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8844729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Alastair Gray26c676.77$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8640935.7%146 W · 263 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Alastair Gray46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2b…9b9ebacked Alastair Gray17c644.71$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.624369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+14.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Alastair Gray20c627.34$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9847728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed George Loffhagen49c599.99$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3067,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed George Loffhagen59c556.17$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.031,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed George Loffhagen39c524.94$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.1678840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da2…73a1backed Alastair Gray56c487.88$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2d…54cfbacked George Loffhagen72c444$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Alastair Gray24c417.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Alastair Gray56c410.7$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9921955.3%121 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed George Loffhagen56c400$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.349,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Alastair Gray40c400$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15914757.8%85 W · 62 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Alastair Gray51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012748.8%62 W · 65 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Alastair Gray54c365.15$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.131,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Alastair Gray26c348.31$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5822035.9%79 W · 141 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked George Loffhagen49c347.7$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.333,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed George Loffhagen62c338.56$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.265,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Alastair Gray43c333$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5464837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Alastair Gray37c311.54$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6778838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…470dbacked George Loffhagen74c299.97$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked George Loffhagen50c293$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.522346.6%104 W · 119 L+15.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed George Loffhagen49c271.68$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.561,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Alastair Gray28c259.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.211056.4%62 W · 48 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed George Loffhagen45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2213050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed George Loffhagen60c213.46$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.852,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed George Loffhagen71c210.08$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.983,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0320…3757backed Alastair Gray50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011365.5%74 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked George Loffhagen61c198.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Alastair Gray51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb66…83d3backed Alastair Gray51c193.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Alastair Gray26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc40…6ae3backed George Loffhagen44c187.02$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.735752.6%30 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alastair Gray28c187.02$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.991,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked George Loffhagen47c186$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.587,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed Alastair Gray28c185.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.810947.7%52 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Alastair Gray27c185.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.997851.3%40 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed George Loffhagen61c164.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.736,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed George Loffhagen44c162.61$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.062,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked George Loffhagen47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.546040%184 W · 276 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Alastair Gray31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.539844.2%176 W · 222 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Alastair Gray21c145.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6146435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Alastair Gray30c143.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.621,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Alastair Gray43c138.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.271,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed George Loffhagen74c126.01$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.025754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked George Loffhagen47c125.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5520740.1%83 W · 124 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8b…b723backed George Loffhagen80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked George Loffhagen63c121.18$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.34,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Alastair Gray27c111.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.163860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Alastair Gray44c109.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.596,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414f…2f42backed George Loffhagen74c107.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.031145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Alastair Gray32c107.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9737547.2%177 W · 198 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8238backed George Loffhagen72c100.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Alastair Gray50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…63bfbacked Alastair Gray51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508261%50 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Alastair Gray33c97.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4891051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7b…f972backed George Loffhagen51c97.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3112742.5%54 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55fb…188abacked Alastair Gray26c96.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.882965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f3…4cfdbacked George Loffhagen76c95.64$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.833036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f8…497dbacked George Loffhagen75c93.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.333070%21 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed George Loffhagen49c93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.437,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bdc…e345backed George Loffhagen77c92$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1616943.8%74 W · 95 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed George Loffhagen58c86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.121,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Alastair Gray30c86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6214945%67 W · 82 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed George Loffhagen59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7539451.8%204 W · 190 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked George Loffhagen59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7592355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed George Loffhagen59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7594255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked George Loffhagen59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7596049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed George Loffhagen59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7528557.9%165 W · 120 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed George Loffhagen58c84.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4627549.1%135 W · 140 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed George Loffhagen60c73.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.171,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7e67backed George Loffhagen71c69.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.238256.1%46 W · 36 L+10.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Alastair Gray25c63.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8588358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…c501backed George Loffhagen73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed George Loffhagen48c54.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.312,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.