TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof MOUZ, Vici Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$457,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ae…9a4abacked MOUZ49c20,953$10,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,309.8323435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MOUZ33c16,556$5,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,470.1843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ35c16,075$5,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,697.1271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ49c15,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,40041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vici Gaming51c12,500$6,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,172.4680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming52c11,227$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.781,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vici Gaming51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90028159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed MOUZ23c9,054$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04535062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Vici Gaming51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9205145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Vici Gaming50c7,897$3,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.1996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Vici Gaming47c7,489$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,988.9253451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed MOUZ49c7,315$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.7229042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Vici Gaming53c7,002$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.4361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ17c6,555$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.1389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ14c5,540$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.5792056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked MOUZ10c5,460$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Vici Gaming49c4,843$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.8927645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Vici Gaming77c4,744$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.9545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Vici Gaming73c4,578$3,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.757770.1%54 W · 23 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vici Gaming78c4,538$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.031,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Vici Gaming76c4,099$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.4428251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked MOUZ37c3,868$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.3925752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ49c3,500$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.9969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed MOUZ28c3,276$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.83043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed MOUZ19c3,041$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.2391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889f…c542backed MOUZ41c2,700$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005234.6%18 W · 34 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed MOUZ12c2,605$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.963735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ad…3624backed MOUZ39c2,540$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed MOUZ55c2,363$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.6210651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ44c2,256$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.3695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed MOUZ25c2,118$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.5826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked MOUZ14c2,021$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4631953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Vici Gaming51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7821155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Vici Gaming50c1,875$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.6311753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Vici Gaming47c1,811$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.8340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Vici Gaming62c1,687$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9479859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ24c1,653$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.62,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed MOUZ25c1,623$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Vici Gaming71c1,528$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.1254058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Vici Gaming55c1,514$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.6932756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ35c1,502$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.281,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MOUZ45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.8558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Vici Gaming55c1,438$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.4725359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked MOUZ34c1,428$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.649644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ59c1,411$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.9872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed Vici Gaming74c1,400$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36415054.7%82 W · 68 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Vici Gaming68c1,337$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.3623561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked MOUZ41c1,329$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.735960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed MOUZ1c1,307$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ33c1,280$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.721,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed MOUZ51c1,256$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.3210537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Vici Gaming51c1,250$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0553764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Vici Gaming75c1,198$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2348057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Vici Gaming48c1,179$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.0635737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd4…0c98backed Vici Gaming79c1,162$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.034470.5%31 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked MOUZ50c1,150$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.59042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked MOUZ55c1,123$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.1650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Vici Gaming45c1,112$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.061,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Vici Gaming49c1,104$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.9521158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ22c1,100$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0429047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Vici Gaming78c1,021$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.650769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed MOUZ49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked MOUZ19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1907936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked MOUZ51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51037047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Vici Gaming49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb4…da4fbacked MOUZ39c999.99$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3877566.7%50 W · 25 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ24c951.6$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7299844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Vici Gaming51c917.65$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.6517757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Vici Gaming50c856$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42828347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed MOUZ59c852.66$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked MOUZ57c847.33$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.828145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0452…843cbacked MOUZ12c843.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.063253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked MOUZ53c842.31$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.127652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed MOUZ13c799.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ51c797.06$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.531,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Vici Gaming59c677.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9755251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ22c648$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed MOUZ25c644$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7817248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Vici Gaming79c608.22$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7926958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Vici Gaming47c595.76$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.3885851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed MOUZ30c583.25$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7234442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed MOUZ52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed MOUZ11c571.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8727737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed MOUZ20c528.4$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb695…f967backed MOUZ25c505.95$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3114243%61 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Vici Gaming50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25038649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Vici Gaming69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1559057.8%52 W · 38 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed MOUZ14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7019839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d9…2085backed MOUZ14c495$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.32142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Vici Gaming51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.224244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed MOUZ31c488.87$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5513553.3%72 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ32c473.22$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6550850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed MOUZ30c466.93$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14019238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Vici Gaming58c459.97$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed MOUZ33c454.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010142.6%43 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Vici Gaming78c450$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.533265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed MOUZ33c449.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023838.2%91 W · 147 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked MOUZ4c447.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9137018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.