Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae96caadacba68614c723bcbb1b7391619451c873109c530e217036ab3abdf3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 649.52$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 25c | 418.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 28c | 394.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 375.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 70c | 350.1$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 256.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 237.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 186$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 47c | 175.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 69c | 153.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 151.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 42c | 145.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 143.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 140.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…5feabacked Yes | 17c | 131.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 122.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 118.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 118.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 93.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 91.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 29c | 89.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 82.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 39c | 76.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 72.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 28c | 71.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 60.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 30c | 58.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 56.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 71c | 53.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 50.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 48.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 80c | 42.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 27c | 40.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 40.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 38.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 72c | 38.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 35.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 72c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed Yes | 55c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked Yes | 63c | 28.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 27.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 64c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked Yes | 76c | 18.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 18.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.