TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b4…e56dbacked No25c1,122$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.4381942.6%349 W · 470 L+27.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes67c755.69$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.769946.1%322 W · 377 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No41c558.8$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.48,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No20c407.34$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3378927.9%220 W · 569 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No37c387.69$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.542,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes75c363$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…541dbacked Yes64c307.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.813372.7%24 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed Yes73c299.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7518045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc329…6a58backed Yes69c299.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No41c245.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.434,62247.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L-182.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes59c212.08$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3225043.6%109 W · 141 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes75c211.07$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.771,32451.1%676 W · 648 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes52c197.47$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0563349.9%316 W · 317 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes34c183.09$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.543,05040.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L-121.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes68c179.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.320244.1%89 W · 113 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No41c176.58$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.981,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c161.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7812,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c152.05$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.696,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No48c135.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.564,90553.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L+33.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes56c128.38$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.492,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No57c123.46$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.964,30253.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L+157.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No46c119.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.452,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b46…8f13backed Yes58c117$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.142661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No30c100.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323,98047.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes61c95.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.842965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No40c93.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.842,15559.6%1,285 W · 870 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.988855.7%495 W · 393 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes70c88.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.071,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c82.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.643,82161.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes75c80.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.36850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c79.37$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.583,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes21c77.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7657554.3%312 W · 263 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c74.85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.946,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c69.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.683,68633.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L-190.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No31c66.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.652,23749.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L-10.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No44c61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.055,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c56.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6712,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xe1ea…18e7backed Yes52c55.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e34…224ebacked Yes55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.957055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No46c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472,54845.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L+23.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.416,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c47.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.523,78265.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L+32.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No39c44.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.024,43565.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L+18.7wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes42c43.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.262,30427%622 W · 1,682 L-41.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No32c42.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No32c41.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,80363.2%1,140 W · 663 L-8.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes60c40.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2243751%223 W · 214 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.342366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2049049%240 W · 250 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.813137.4%49 W · 82 L-17.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked No45c37.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0631158.5%182 W · 129 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No39c37.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7139956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0465838.8%255 W · 403 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed Yes44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.717457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No33c31.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4676059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No37c31.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes62c31.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.122,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes68c30.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6319156%107 W · 84 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes68c30.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6315556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd56…45c3backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.15561.8%34 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.314943.6%65 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d8…5430backed Yes74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4124451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes62c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.785,16168.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L+71.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes75c26.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.556046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b04…6477backed Yes57c26.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.161650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes65c26.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.081353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes57c24.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6613340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No49c24.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c63…8448backed Yes63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.811942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec52…59e8backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes70c15.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7810667.9%72 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes69c15.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.623865.8%25 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.