WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0108591ebeb22eb3adac4bac7c4bef26886eaddbf65b4070388831ae9bf848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Atlanta Dream, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x531b…32b6backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,799.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.91 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 8,722$4,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,260.34 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 7,102$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,572 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 4,061$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.28 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 3,712$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.9 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 3,346$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.71 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 2,820$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 2,157$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.5 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 1,962$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.59 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 1,027$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.18 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 1,015$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.32 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.14 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.75 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 43c | 882.09$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 847.22$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.01 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 800$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 620$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Seattle Storm | 60c | 515.77$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.03 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb1…e05ebacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 379.59$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 346$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…de1abacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 261.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 260.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 258$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 199.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 181.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Seattle Storm | 49c | 156$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Seattle Storm | 44c | 137.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Storm | 55c | 132.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Atlanta Dream | 13c | 132.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 104.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Seattle Storm | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 86.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Atlanta Dream | 49c | 81.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 74.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 58.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 57.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 55.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 53.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 51.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 50.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Seattle Storm | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Seattle Storm | 47c | 46.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Seattle Storm | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 43.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 38.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…c50bbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…3c77backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…13febacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 31.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 31.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Seattle Storm | 54c | 30.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Storm | 48c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Atlanta Dream | 47c | 21.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-12.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5Over won
- Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-11.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.