Lol · resolved market

LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf162aef84b333e2158e4af69ba7069c2120fbcaba69b64642b11aa9740b65a9

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ultra Primeof FRK, Ultra Prime
Resolved: Dec 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $144,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,906 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xed2c…9597backed FRK	3c	30,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	416	44.2%184 W · 232 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed FRK	13c	6,560$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.34	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked FRK	16c	6,373$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.99	191	46.1%88 W · 103 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked FRK	20c	3,570$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.36	840	41%344 W · 496 L	-38.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3698…3509backed FRK	7c	2,780$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed FRK	13c	2,510$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.93	941	34.5%325 W · 616 L	+33.6wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d1…a249backed FRK	1c	2,134$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FRK	8c	2,111$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	2,362	32%755 W · 1,607 L	+42.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1329…0b4bbacked FRK	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+77%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed FRK	11c	1,820$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	443	35.4%157 W · 286 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FRK	16c	1,603$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.14	428	40.2%172 W · 256 L	-32.1wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x888b…2d66backed Ultra Prime	59c	1,538$907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630.49	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FRK	12c	1,520$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.17	1,827	45.6%834 W · 993 L	+26.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked FRK	11c	1,500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	245	29.8%73 W · 172 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FRK	8c	1,331$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.45	2,406	42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L	+21.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FRK	41c	1,262$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.57	487	42.3%206 W · 281 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed FRK	9c	1,200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.99	460	33.9%156 W · 304 L	+27.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+22%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FRK	24c	1,005$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.74	950	41.6%395 W · 555 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed FRK	8c	978.14$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.55	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked FRK	11c	963.24$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.14	218	48.6%106 W · 112 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked FRK	25c	796.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	759	42%319 W · 440 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed FRK	13c	791.81$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.53	129	27.9%36 W · 93 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Ultra Prime	75c	755.02$566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.75	102	50%51 W · 51 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked FRK	9c	741$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.35	675	49%331 W · 344 L	+10.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked FRK	10c	600$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	295	36.9%109 W · 186 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked FRK	8c	599.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	771	31.8%245 W · 526 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked FRK	10c	560$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed FRK	24c	555$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.75	769	53.4%411 W · 358 L	+13.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…3ef9backed FRK	9c	529.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb10…8062backed FRK	10c	525.52$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.55	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked FRK	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8778…8a09backed FRK	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked FRK	13c	437.95$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+26%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a68…9b6cbacked FRK	13c	323$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.81	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	33cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef69…cdbdbacked FRK	9c	306.85$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed FRK	11c	299.96$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	274	52.2%143 W · 131 L	+16.2wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed FRK	9c	292.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	237	42.2%100 W · 137 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5571…4015backed FRK	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e72…b2febacked FRK	29c	234.61$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed FRK	16c	210$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed FRK	14c	207.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked FRK	8c	205.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	395	7.1%28 W · 367 L	-122.2wins	-0.31per pick	38cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	18-0.29 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Ultra Prime	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	288	55.9%161 W · 127 L	-20.1wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed FRK	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked FRK	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab3…5fa4backed FRK	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ca…b334backed Ultra Prime	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked FRK	14c	192.12$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.71	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdab1…eaa6backed FRK	14c	187.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed FRK	8c	182.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	1,517	3.3%50 W · 1,467 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeed5…339ebacked Ultra Prime	59c	178.98$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.98	71	64.8%46 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x622a…2b59backed FRK	12c	178.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	+185.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Ultra Prime	63c	177.77$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.18	1,229	45.1%554 W · 675 L	+48.5wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b0…df70backed FRK	27c	154.67$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.76	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d32…fe50backed FRK	8c	148.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed FRK	15c	134.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	50%36 W · 36 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed FRK	14c	131.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	239	15.9%38 W · 201 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da7…2e56backed FRK	16c	125.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	63.2%48 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4e…e394backed FRK	19c	110.1$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…1a19backed FRK	19c	104.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	380	34.7%132 W · 248 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Ultra Prime	60c	93.33$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.33	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FRK	31c	92.64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.47	1,224	48.3%591 W · 633 L	+26.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed FRK	28c	90.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-4.9wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed FRK	12c	89.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b11…d17bbacked Ultra Prime	73c	78$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb7…6373backed FRK	20c	74.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed FRK	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	346	31.2%108 W · 238 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea1c…73e6backed FRK	19c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	60	55%33 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cd1ebacked FRK	18c	68.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	791	56.1%444 W · 347 L	-2.6wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed FRK	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed FRK	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c71…a20ebacked FRK	19c	52.3$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked FRK	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c6…6c18backed FRK	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0521…729bbacked Ultra Prime	64c	45.55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Ultra Prime	64c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb930…beb1backed FRK	38c	36.29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked FRK	44c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	1,024	45%461 W · 563 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…82b4backed Ultra Prime	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Ultra Prime	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	748	49.6%371 W · 377 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3183…a303backed Ultra Prime	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	60cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c1…d624backed Ultra Prime	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354b…b076backed Ultra Prime	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b8…1417backed Ultra Prime	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3)this page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 WinnerUltra Prime won
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime - Game 2 WinnerUltra Prime won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event