NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1b20af5b6bb9b1927593c8e2098f6bcf84fea6b7fa4ea1e78947c37e74cd90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Timberwolves, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Timberwolves | 51c | 183,165$94,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,103.13 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Nets | 48c | 97,544$47,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,332.7 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 49c | 20,939$10,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,693.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Nets | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 49c | 6,534$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.15 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nets | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Nets | 50c | 4,212$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.8 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 48c | 3,049$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 49c | 2,998$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Nets | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nets | 48c | 1,999$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.54 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 49c | 1,592$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Nets | 51c | 1,027$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Timberwolves | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed Nets | 50c | 277.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Timberwolves | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Nets | 49c | 193.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nets | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Nets | 48c | 99.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Nets | 50c | 92.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Nets | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nets | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Nets | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Nets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. TimberwolvesNets won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.