NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20618d6f4e93bfd64645d3aeef61c2cb5c735299f8e6749c21e68b442dbc2b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Timberwolves, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 46c | 9,724$4,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,247.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 5,789$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.99 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Timberwolves | 54c | 3,682$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Timberwolves | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 48c | 1,834$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 1,503$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nets | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nets | 47c | 800.61$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.32 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Timberwolves | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 49c | 439.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.18 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Nets | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Timberwolves | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 47c | 263$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Nets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Nets | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Nets | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…981dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Nets | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Nets | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Nets | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Nets | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Timberwolves | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Timberwolves | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Timberwolves | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Timberwolves | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Timberwolves | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Timberwolves | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Timberwolves | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Timberwolves | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…6c7ebacked Nets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Nets | 47c | 27.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nets | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Timberwolves | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Timberwolves | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Timberwolves | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. TimberwolvesNets won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.