NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09fb604c4d597737faaf82a36e1c85d5609cf23b489da9539fef7f5ae1aedc7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Timberwolves, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Timberwolves | 51c | 22,137$11,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,335.99 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 48c | 12,197$5,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,313.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Nets | 48c | 4,142$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.67 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Nets | 43c | 3,350$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.3 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 2,812$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.86 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nets | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Nets | 48c | 1,850$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Timberwolves | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nets | 50c | 1,742$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 49c | 1,673$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.03 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Nets | 50c | 1,179$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.5 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 44c | 607$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Timberwolves | 49c | 485.09$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.69 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Nets | 43c | 348.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…4332backed Nets | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Nets | 51c | 296.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Nets | 44c | 284.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…2ff3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 267.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b6…b8f8backed Timberwolves | 54c | 241.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Nets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Nets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Nets | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…8defbacked Nets | 49c | 203.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…7e59backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nets | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…3183backed Timberwolves | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Nets | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nets | 49c | 155.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 49c | 135.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nets | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Nets | 48c | 113.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Nets | 53c | 103.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…1b84backed Nets | 53c | 102.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…64ebbacked Nets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Nets | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…eb2abacked Nets | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…92b2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…c535backed Nets | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 83.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Nets | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nets | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 49c | 67.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Nets | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Nets | 22c | 63.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 46c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Nets | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Nets | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Nets | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c0…e672backed Nets | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbd…432dbacked Nets | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 192 | 58.3%112 W · 80 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 52c | 48.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…1505backed Nets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Timberwolves | 54c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nets | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…74d1backed Nets | 44c | 31.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Nets | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Nets | 49c | 21.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Nets | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Nets | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. TimberwolvesNets won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Nets won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.