Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5f56d8c8e3e684b13a26e1c13a94888f8a7b2addcf82204261585847d225d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Yes | 50c | 30,000$14,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,993.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 50c | 22,908$11,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,454 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 19c | 10,576$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,588.04 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 7,482$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,669.22 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 50c | 2,467$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,080$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 49c | 1,805$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.31 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed No | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 28c | 1,340$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.07 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 57c | 1,308$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 40c | 1,240$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 1,237$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 65c | 1,175$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 41c | 1,078$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.74 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 69c | 759.83$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 50c | 733.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.62 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 51c | 389.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 51c | 379.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 52c | 348.1$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Yes | 68c | 339.75$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…4bbdbacked Yes | 51c | 306.13$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 29c | 262.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 68c | 245$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 43c | 213$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed No | 49c | 201.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…c4d4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 67c | 84.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…cba8backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 49c | 50.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 72c | 47.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…e09ebacked Yes | 68c | 40.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 47c | 40.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…c1a6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…78f0backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…a384backed Yes | 70c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 50c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…6bc4backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 50c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…5efdbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…27cabacked Yes | 69c | 17.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30?this page
- Will Werder Bremen vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-08-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.