NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf87938ecccf7fbd8096d3f9ecfdae7c32399ef95bd11f26798111ba802f8b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Celtics | 47c | 9,566$4,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,069.99 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bucks | 52c | 7,609$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956.67 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 53c | 4,830$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Celtics | 48c | 3,835$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4627backed Celtics | 48c | 2,745$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Bucks | 53c | 1,358$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.86 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Bucks | 53c | 1,358$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.86 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Bucks | 23c | 1,148$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Celtics | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.78 | 442 | 52.3%231 W · 211 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Bucks | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Celtics | 77c | 692.31$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Bucks | 52c | 643.28$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.51 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Celtics | 78c | 456.73$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…bd1bbacked Bucks | 46c | 421.92$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Celtics | 54c | 405.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.11 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Celtics | 48c | 403.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…f706backed Bucks | 48c | 367.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.63 | 241 | 39%94 W · 147 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Bucks | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Bucks | 14c | 314.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bucks | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks | 52c | 293.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Celtics | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Celtics | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Bucks | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Celtics | 48c | 102.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Celtics | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Bucks | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Celtics | 60c | 74.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bucks | 27c | 72.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Bucks | 53c | 65.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Bucks | 52c | 51.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Celtics | 48c | 51.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…cc57backed Bucks | 53c | 45.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Bucks | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…f450backed Bucks | 30c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Bucks | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…5a93backed Bucks | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Celtics | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…5a48backed Bucks | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Celtics | 59c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Celtics | 58c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-18.5)this page
- Celtics vs. BucksCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Gary Trent Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Ousmane Dieng: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Ousmane Dieng: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-16.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-17.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.