NBA · resolved market
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01f61f5e0344526beca17f80ebf2b01aec2144c186dd850569785e9df101409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 42c | 665.51$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Yes | 60c | 485.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.85 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed No | 39c | 395.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.03 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 299.96$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.97 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Yes | 58c | 220.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…7b9ebacked Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 108 | 35.2%38 W · 70 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…28f5backed Yes | 58c | 84.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 49c | 62.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 45c | 46.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…40d8backed Yes | 56c | 43.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 44c | 31.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02eb…917dbacked Yes | 57c | 26.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes | 57c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 61c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jrue Holiday: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Scoot Henderson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail BlazersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.