Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02bfd3ab378b05fdc0a51d8f415d49a60ca3d397fea08b7eef88d7cd32a72f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 2c | 1,857$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 3c | 504.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 61c | 422$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.74 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 359.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 19c | 205.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 80c | 199.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 198.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 9c | 182$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 42c | 156.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 57c | 143.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 139.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 134.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 130.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 129.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 120.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 114.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 47c | 96.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 95.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 92.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 47c | 92.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 56c | 85.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 77.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 74.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 61c | 70.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 69.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 63.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 50c | 62.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 58.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 39c | 58.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 55.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 54c | 55.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 51.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 50.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 46.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 45c | 44.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 43.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 40.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 51c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 29.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 28.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 80c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 21.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 18.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 18.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 55c | 18.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.