Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0742a404312bf5e868ca1ec6080611a4a68a09a1861c36d21bd63c845770fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 1,599$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 749.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 734.87$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 30c | 570.86$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.57 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 469.54$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.67 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 66c | 455.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 70c | 285.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 255.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 34c | 229.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 71c | 223.69$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 221$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 189.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 188.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 186.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 184.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 181$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 174.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 163.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 73c | 160.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 160$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 157.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 154.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 14c | 152.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 151.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 142.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 140.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 133.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 132.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 65c | 119.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 114.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 114.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 49c | 102.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 98.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 92.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 68c | 84.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 76.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 59c | 74.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 72.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 67.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 65.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 61.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 34c | 59.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 60c | 58.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 52.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 49.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 52c | 43.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 52c | 43.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 42.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 42.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 41.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 40.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 36.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 33.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 52c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 29.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 67c | 28.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 64c | 26.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 25.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 15.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c21…be9ebacked No | 71c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 14.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.