Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb092b0168f3e400505abcdf4183dd7dab6868224a6e4a7d65909fd2d94ffbf4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,900$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 1,059$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 79c | 920.92$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Yes | 53c | 672.19$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 57c | 473$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.61 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 423.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 405.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 39c | 352.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 307.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 55c | 285$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 274.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 255.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked No | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 172$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 138.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 127.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 114.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 52c | 101.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 100.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 96.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 52c | 95.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 34c | 83.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 52c | 79.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 53c | 71.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 41c | 60.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 56.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 73c | 53.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 50.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…f9c6backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 42.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 71c | 35.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 33.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 54c | 31.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 22.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.