TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No55c2,592$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.141,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes27c1,618$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed No67c1,369$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2811148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c735.42$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.28,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c499.7$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.928,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c455.27$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.515,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No63c422.04$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.691,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes37c406.81$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.881,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes33c388.27$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.544,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes46c350$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c326.84$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.363,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes46c264.37$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.611,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes35c256.79$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.835,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c252.89$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.84,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes45c242$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.91,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9086949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66f3…787cbacked Yes16c198$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes39c187.03$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.762,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No63c180.53$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c172$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.395,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes35c166.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.913,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes36c166.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafb7…e027backed Yes38c160$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.161323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No61c154$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c149.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.493,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes35c149.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639e…4ee9backed Yes45c148.81$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c147.38$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes36c146.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked No65c140.91$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3218945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes40c138.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.682,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8416…051cbacked Yes45c136.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No69c135.58$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes38c131.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.021,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No62c112.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No63c110.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.21,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No60c108.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.534151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No64c106.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.362,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c93.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.014,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c92.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes40c87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c83.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No60c80.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2511958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No62c76.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes45c67.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c62.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes40c57.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7827056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed Yes34c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes40c51.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3754335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c50.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.511,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No75c49.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4323677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No65c43.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.124,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes39c42.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.724,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7446148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No61c38.41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes38c37.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.230332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes35c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No58c34.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No58c33.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes45c33.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes42c32.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6654735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d9…6da7backed No59c26.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.053775.7%28 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No53c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.222,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No62c25.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8111664.7%75 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No79c25.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2822265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No79c25.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.289272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb344…0e61backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c24.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No60c20.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c19.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa143…1303backed No53c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.932766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No76c13.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.