TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,937 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat43c8,289$3,576 inLost-$3,575.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Raptors56c2,654$1,490 inWon+$1,163.4434255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Raptors42c1,741$724 inWon+$1,017.492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors51c1,586$810 inWon+$776.683,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors75c599.87$450 inWon+$149.972,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors56c386.53$218 inWon+$168.621,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Heat56c296.95$166 inLost-$166.292,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Raptors40c251.14$101 inWon+$149.9161638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors48c178.39$86 inWon+$92.252,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Raptors41c174.97$72 inWon+$103.2391846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Raptors46c94.39$43 inWon+$50.9710657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Raptors71c82.72$59 inWon+$23.752461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Heat49c79.13$39 inLost-$38.7827138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Raptors42c68.94$29 inWon+$39.9945542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…9111backed Raptors60c43.3$26 inWon+$17.423743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Raptors50c42.31$21 inWon+$21.091,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Raptors46c39.37$18 inWon+$21.2636949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat50c38.97$19 inLost-$19.491,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat42c34.48$14 inLost-$14.489,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Raptors63c29.33$19 inWon+$10.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.