NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5903c65d497f413a148a778de68ddf0788fe11d173c9a56e65bb77d575fb676f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 2,335$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.33 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,339$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,138$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.91 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 1,137$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.53 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Over | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 895.76$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.92 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 48c | 599.78$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.89 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…f7e2backed Under | 52c | 597.98$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 46c | 578.67$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…d519backed Over | 48c | 447.92$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 17c | 381.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 50c | 343.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 270.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 183.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 52c | 180.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…9b76backed Under | 50c | 175.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 51c | 168.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Over | 47c | 159.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 49c | 154.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed Over | 47c | 131.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 115.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 105.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b2…dee8backed Under | 54c | 89.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 50c | 69.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 51c | 63.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 52c | 57.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 49c | 56.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 49.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…e2ffbacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 44c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 36.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…e28fbacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 50c | 34.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Over | 50c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 43c | 30.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…0820backed Over | 53c | 30.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 29.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…2841backed Under | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Under | 50c | 29.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…a156backed Under | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 48c | 27.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf669…8e26backed Under | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc248…299cbacked Under | 48c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 50c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbc…6a8fbacked Over | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 45c | 24.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Over | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…e70ebacked Over | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…dec8backed Under | 48c | 21.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…a066backed Under | 53c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…8355backed Over | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…93edbacked Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 245.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-16.5)Heat won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.