TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Heat, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,288 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78bc…5616backed Heat46c1,852$846 inLost-$845.614745.6%67 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Raptors61c992.61$605 inWon+$387.1257444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Raptors55c395$217 inWon+$177.752,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors55c311.57$173 inWon+$138.742,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Raptors56c238.01$133 inWon+$104.723948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…0d62backed Heat44c232.88$102 inLost-$102.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-72.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9961…edcfbacked Heat48c200.81$97 inLost-$96.91520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-49.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Raptors59c147.74$88 inWon+$59.9112541.6%52 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Raptors71c138.22$98 inWon+$40.120353.7%109 W · 94 L+21.5wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed Raptors29c87.45$25 inWon+$62.292157.1%12 W · 9 L+6.3wins+0.30per pick27cpaid+99.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x18a7…07aebacked Heat25c80.22$20 inLost-$20.063036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fc…55ccbacked Raptors59c73.34$43 inWon+$30.072263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Raptors54c31.71$17 inWon+$14.5932654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Raptors59c30$18 inWon+$12.313744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Heat45c23.42$11 inLost-$10.546132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.