NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2081de06ef27ee4d613cdb2dac40ab3efa8c4523b7b21bae5e54fa12918f802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd202…8973backed Over | 49c | 34,198$16,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,441.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 11,420$5,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,813.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 10,802$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,509.07 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…3096backed Under | 51c | 8,633$4,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,402.89 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 7,254$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.73 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…3d49backed Under | 51c | 5,587$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.55 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 52c | 3,979$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.08 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 2,613$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 51c | 2,269$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.44 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 51c | 2,238$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.43 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Under | 51c | 2,030$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.25 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 49c | 1,610$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.91 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,390$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.46 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 1,265$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 1,127$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 51c | 1,123$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.33 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.79 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Under | 51c | 875.44$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.48 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 51c | 450.59$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 329.41$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 232.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 196.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Under | 51c | 177.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Under | 54c | 143.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 15c | 128.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 15c | 126.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 51c | 124.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Under | 50c | 116.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 15c | 114.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 106.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 52c | 96.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Under | 57c | 92.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 52c | 90.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 87.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 53c | 82.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Under | 52c | 72.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 70.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 43.4%96 W · 125 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 46c | 38.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…c04fbacked Under | 51c | 36.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 36.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 51c | 34.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 34.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 38c | 33.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 51c | 32.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 55c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 56c | 23.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…30debacked Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Heat vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Over won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 245.5Under won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-16.5)Heat won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.