Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
St. Mary's vs. American University
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22ce9cb06a7f4e97c6a67f5ddf655ba3fe8bd83de663513970daacee5fc17d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Mary'sof St. Mary's, American University
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $556,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $564,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed St. Mary's | 64c | 88,879$57,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,647.96 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked St. Mary's | 57c | 50,850$28,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,016.11 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3e11backed American University | 30c | 49,852$15,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,159.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed American University | 18c | 29,744$5,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,455.58 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked American University | 48c | 25,597$12,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,179.22 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed American University | 30c | 15,817$4,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,684.02 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed American University | 47c | 13,553$6,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,365.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed St. Mary's | 73c | 12,302$9,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,279.31 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked American University | 50c | 6,533$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked American University | 1c | 3,644$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed American University | 57c | 3,214$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.66 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked American University | 13c | 2,795$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed St. Mary's | 43c | 2,668$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.16 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed St. Mary's | 43c | 2,264$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.83 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked St. Mary's | 42c | 1,952$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.64 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…e97fbacked St. Mary's | 45c | 1,887$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…7bb6backed St. Mary's | 44c | 1,494$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked American University | 56c | 1,461$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.43 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked American University | 52c | 1,315$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.76 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…9678backed American University | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed American University | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked American University | 56c | 930$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.47 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed American University | 34c | 855.79$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed St. Mary's | 72c | 679.77$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked American University | 8c | 380.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed American University | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked St. Mary's | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked St. Mary's | 43c | 233$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed St. Mary's | 72c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed St. Mary's | 54c | 127.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked American University | 56c | 104.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed St. Mary's | 42c | 100.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed American University | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed St. Mary's | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked St. Mary's | 44c | 88.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed St. Mary's | 43c | 87.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…3476backed American University | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed St. Mary's | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…a6afbacked American University | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…47afbacked St. Mary's | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed St. Mary's | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed American University | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked American University | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed American University | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…3aa3backed St. Mary's | 44c | 38.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed American University | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed St. Mary's | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed American University | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.